'Captain America: Brave New World' Box Office Expectations Already In Decline
Marvel Studios’ upcoming Captain America: Brave New World is already seeing the film’s box office expectations decline.
Shawn Robbins at Box Office Theory released his 5-week forecast for the film and it’s already significantly lower than his 6-week forecast.
He originally shared that the film would gross between $81 million and $107 million in its opening domestic weekend. He specifically predicted it would do $96 million.
As for the film’s entire run at the domestic box office, he predicted it will gross between $195 million and $280 million. He ultimately predicted $240 million.
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Now, a week later he has reduced his top-end opening weekend projections for the film. The range for opening weekend is now between $81 million and $98 million. He believes it will do $90 million. On the top end that’s a decline of nearly 8.5% while his specific projection has declined by 6.25%
As for the entire run, that has also been shifted significantly downward. He now notes it will be between $195 million and $266 million. He still predicts it will do $240 million. That’s a decline of 5% on the top end.
Robbins was not the only one to share projections for the film 6 weeks before its release. Deadline’s Anthony D’Alessandro had also reported that box office tracking service Quorum predicted the film would gross between $86 million and $95 million in its first three-days at the box office.
Alongside Robbins’ new projections, The Hollywood Reporter also claimed that the film will do just $90 million-plus over the combined Valentine’s Day/Presidents Day Weekend. That means they are factoring in an extra-day for President’s Day on Monday.
For clarity, Robbins believes the 4-day weekend will come in at $102 million.
There was also a report from Luiz Fernando about a week ago claiming that the pre-sales for Captain America: Brave New World were just on par with Eternals and just 1.4x better than The Marvels.
The Marvels went on to have an opening weekend of just $46.1 million while Eternals did $71.2 million.
The last Captain America film, Captain America: Civil War had an opening weekend of $179.1 million. That film released in 2016. It went on to gross $408 million domestically.
Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which released in 2014, had an opening weekend of $95 million. It grossed $259.7 million domestically.
While Captain America: The First Avenger, which released in 2011, had an opening weekend of $65 million. It did $176.6 million domestically.
What do you make of these projections being lowered already?