James Gunn Rejects Idea That 'Superman' Needs To Gross $700 Million To Be Considered A Success: "Just Complete And Utter Nonsense"
James Gunn rejected the idea that his upcoming Superman needs to gross $700 million in order to be considered a success.
In an interview with GQ, Gunn stated, “This is not the riskiest endeavor in the world. Is there something riding on it? Yeah, but it’s not as big as people make it out to be.”
“They hear these numbers that the movie’s only going to be successful if it makes 700 million or something and it’s just complete and utter nonsense. It doesn’t need to be as big of a situation as people are saying,” he added.
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However, Tom Demeropolis at Columbus Business Journal previously reported that the film’s production budget was $363.8 million. He wrote, “The film, which applied for Ohio Motion Picture Tax Credits under the project code name “Genesis,” is expected to receive more than $11 million in tax credits. … The film’s total eligible production expenditures for the Ohio Motion Picture Tax Credit were nearly $37 million, or a little more than 10% of the film’s total budget of more than $363.8 million.”
Gunn disputed this figure on Threads back in February 2024 writing, “How in the world do they think they know what our budget is?”
Nevertheless, Reddit user SilverRoyce petitioned the Ohio government and shared that the film’s production budget was $363,845,386.00. A report from TheWrap in June claims the budget is only $225 million.
If the budget from the the state of Ohio and Warner Bros. itself is accurate the film likely needs to gross over $1.09 billion in order to break even. If its budget is closer to the $225 million as reported by TheWrap it needs to gross somewhere around $675 million.
It is unlikely the film will hit that $1 billion mark. Shawn Robbins at Box Office Theory currently projects the film will gross $148 million in its opening weekend and between $358 million and $457 million in its entire domestic run.
However, Deadline believes the film will only gross a total of $200 million globally in its opening weekend. Domestically, the outlet claims it has already done $20 million in presales, but that’s below Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania but higher than Gunn’s own Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. It also shares that “some tracking firms and exhibitors’ internal estimates — believe Superman flies to $115M-$130M.”
Box office analyst OMB Reviews believes the film will not hit $1 billion given the current trend at the box office this year. He said, “The Minecraft movie made $300+ million globally in its opening weekend. Lilo & Stitch made over $300 million in its opening weekend. We also just saw recently Jurassic World Rebirth over $300 million made in its global opening weekend. So hearing $200 million that’s not that impressive in comparison.”
“Having a starting point at $200 million is not the best and not the place you really want to be,” he added. “The other issue is that this is including IMAX screens. This is including all international markets.”
Additionally, he notes that typically films gross around three times their opening weekend. So if the film only grosses $200 million globally, it’s possible it only grosses $600 million in total a far cry from the $675 million it would need to gross for a budget of $225 million let alone $363.8 million.
What do you make of Gunn’s comments?
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It ia cute that Gunn thinks secrecy is a thing nowadays. Liars lie; although, they will tell the truth when the truth better serves their purposes.
If James Gunn would write a good story, the bottom line might not be so important, but since he can't write good stories, the studios want to get their money back somehow.