Report: Xbox's Game Pass Games Can "Lose Around 80% Of Its Expected Premium Sales on Xbox"
A new report alleges that Xbox’s Game Pass games “can lose around 80% of its expected premium sales on Xbox.”
Former Games Industry Head Christopher Dring conducted a Q&A session with Install Base, where he was asked about game subscriptions such as Xbox’s Game Pass.
Specifically a user named Undead Warrior asked, “As someone without access to The Numbers... I always wonder how much popular sentiment aligns with market perception. In this specific case, I wonder about game subscription services; years ago they were touted as the future and purely additive, and nowadays the sentiment seems a lot more dour. Is this reflected at all on the other side of the curtain? Is it something developers talk about? Is it even something you can track at all with the data you have?”
He also added, “More generally, how do you feel these initiatives impacted the gaming landscape, and what do you make of their trajectory so far?”
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Dring replied, “Anecdotally, games that are in Game Pass can expect to lose around 80% of its expected premium sales on Xbox. That’s the figure that gets thrown around. It’s less if it’s a big mainstream release, but generally… look at how low Hellblade 2 charted. Or where Indiana Jones came. Or even Starfield. Game Pass clearly hurt sales of those titles on Xbox.”
He continued, “But… if it’s a game on multiple platforms, it can be beneficial. That surge in players on one Xbox can have a strong impact on sales on PlayStation, for instance.”
To elucidate Dring’s opinion, a game like Indiana Jones and the Great Circle retails for $69.99. A Core Game Subscription costs Xbox console players just $9.99/month albeit there are other tiers that cost $14.99 and $19.99.
For PC players there is a starter tier that only costs $11.99 per month as well as the $19.99 per month Ultimate edition that is also available for Console players.
One would have to maintain a Core Game Pass subscription for at least 7 months to equal the same revenue as normal game sale.
As for his own opinion on subscription services, Dring stated, “I am actually torn on subscription. I believe it can lead to lost revenue, and services like this make it harder for everyone else. Try being an indie game on Xbox right now that’s not on Game Pass…”
“But also, getting people to play your game in 2024/2025 is so, so, so hard. And subscription gets games in front of lots of people,” he contineud. “We know from data that there are a lot of people that only play Call of Duty. And if some of those people decided to get Call of Duty this year via Game Pass, and those very same people took the opportunity to play some other Game Pass games, games they wouldn’t have otherwise played… it’s hard to argue that’s a bad thing. There’s my on-the-fence answer.”
Next, he shared, “As for trajectory… although subscriptions have a decent audience, there's not been too much growth recently (we're waiting to see that Call of Duty impact). In a world where the biggest games are free, and hundreds of hours long, the idea that the majority of gamers will be accessing their games via a subs service seems fanciful. That’s my less on-the-fence answer.”
Back in February 2024, Xbox boss Phil Spencer claimed Game Pass had 34 million subscriptions. That was 9 million more than in January 2022 when the company had announced it had attained 25 million subscribers.
Furthermore, Spencer noted many of these new subscribers were coming from PC and the cloud. “When there's a fixed number of console players on the planet you're not going to grow Game Pass forever by shipping just on consoles. So we're seeing really significant growth on PC, which is great, and cloud,” Spencer explained to Game File.
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As Dring notes, the commercial viability of Indiana Jones and the Great Circle was likely affected by the game being on Game Pass.
According to True Achievements the game was the 32nd most played Xbox title of 2024 despite releasing in December at the end of the year.
Furthermore, the outlet noted the game has been around the top 10 since it was released. It originally charted in 11th after it was released. In its second week it moved up to third. It remained in third in its fourth week. In its sixth week it only fell to seventh.
It seems apparent that the game being on Game Pass has allowed it to remain at the top of these charts.
This is even more apparent when you look at the game’s performance over on Steam. The game hit a peak all-time concurrent player count of just 12,138 on the first Monday after it was released.
The game has seemingly maintained a steady audience likely due to some strong word of mouth. However, it’s performance is still middling with the most recent 24-hour peak only clocking in at 4,091.
What do you make of this report that Game Pass games can loss 80% of expected revenue from premium sales?
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